Effect of changes in Interest Rates on Household Consumption

Authors

  • Srifatmawati Ahmad Universitas Tomakaka Mamuju Author
  • Muhammad Azizi Universitas Tomakaka Mamuju Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62872/anp8k370

Keywords:

Interest Rate, Household Consumption, Household Income

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of changes in interest rates on household consumption in Indonesia by employing a quantitative method with a causal associative approach. The analysis uses secondary time-series data from 2014 to 2024, obtained from official institutions such as Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The variables examined include interest rates, household income, and inflation as independent variables, while household consumption serves as the dependent variable. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression through SPSS. The results indicate that interest rates have a negative and significant effect on household consumption, implying that higher interest rates discourage spending by increasing borrowing costs. On the other hand, household income positively and significantly affects consumption, suggesting that increased income boosts purchasing power. Inflation is also found to negatively influence consumption, reflecting reduced purchasing capability during periods of rising prices. The model’s goodness of fit, as measured by R Square, shows that 81.4% of the variation in household consumption can be explained by the three independent variables. These findings emphasize the importance of interest rate and inflation control in maintaining household consumption stability and overall economic health.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Auclert, A. (2019). Monetary policy and the redistribution channel. American Economic Review, 109(6), 2333-2367.

Azizur, R. K., & Carl, R. (2023). Income and inequality in China: composition, distribution and growth of household income, 1988 to 1995. In People's Republic of China, Volumes I and II (pp. Vol2-61). Routledge.

Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020). How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 834-862.

Baldauf, M., Garlappi, L., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(3), 1256-1295.

Blanchard, O. (2019). Public debt and low interest rates. American Economic Review, 109(4), 1197-1229.

Cecchetti, S. G., & Kohler, M. (2023). When capital adequacy and interest rate policy are substitutes (and when they are not). 36th issue (September 2014) of the International Journal of Central Banking.

Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., Stepner, M., & The Opportunity Insights Team. (2020). How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? A new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data (Vol. 91, pp. 1689-1699). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020). The cost of the covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending (No. w27141). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2022). Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations. Journal of Political Economy, 130(6), 1537-1584.

Comin, D., Lashkari, D., & Mestieri, M. (2021). Structural change with long‐run income and price effects. Econometrica, 89(1), 311-374.

Daud, S. N. M., Marzuki, A., Ahmad, N., & Kefeli, Z. (2019). Financial vulnerability and its determinants: Survey evidence from Malaysian households. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(9), 1991-2003.

Dornbusch, R. (2019). The theory of flexible exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic policy. In Flexible Exchange Rates (pp. 123-143). Routledge.

Drechsler, I., Savov, A., & Schnabl, P. (2021). Banking on deposits: Maturity transformation without interest rate risk. The Journal of Finance, 76(3), 1091-1143.

Dubois, G., Sovacool, B., Aall, C., Nilsson, M., Barbier, C., Herrmann, A., ... & Sauerborn, R. (2019). It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures. Energy Research & Social Science, 52, 144-158.

Janssen, M., Chang, B. P., Hristov, H., Pravst, I., Profeta, A., & Millard, J. (2021). Changes in food consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of consumer survey data from the first lockdown period in Denmark, Germany, and Slovenia. Frontiers in nutrition, 8, 635859.

Jarociński, M., & Karadi, P. (2020). Deconstructing monetary policy surprises—the role of information shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(2), 1-43.

Kapoor, M., & Ravi, S. (2009). The Effect of Interest Rate on Household Consumption: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in India. Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family.

Kouri, P. J. (2019). The exchange rate and the balance of payments in the short run and in the long run: A monetary approach. In Flexible Exchange Rates (pp. 148-172). Routledge.

Kozlov, R. (2023). The effect of interest rate changes on consumption: An age-structured approach. Economies, 11(1), 23.

Martin, A., Markhvida, M., Hallegatte, S., & Walsh, B. (2020). Socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 on household consumption and poverty. Economics of disasters and climate change, 4(3), 453-479.

Susilawati, S., Falefi, R., & Purwoko, A. (2020). Impact of COVID-19’s Pandemic on the Economy of Indonesia. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal), 3(2), 1147-1156.

Vayanos, D., & Vila, J. L. (2021). A preferred‐habitat model of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica, 89(1), 77-112.

Vengelen, B.M. (2015). Household consumption and long-term interest rates. Georgetown University-Graduate School of Arts & Sciences.

Downloads

Published

2025-02-28

How to Cite

Effect of changes in Interest Rates on Household Consumption. (2025). Nomico, 2(1), 75-85. https://doi.org/10.62872/anp8k370

Similar Articles

51-60 of 72

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.